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Prediction · Head to head

Mbilli vs Alvarez prediction

Canelo vs. Mbilli: Mexico vs. The World · Sat, 31 Oct 2026 · undefined, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

WBC title12 roundsSuper Middleweight
Christian MbilliChristian Mbilli29-0-124 KO🇫🇷P4P #60VSCanelo AlvarezCanelo Alvarez63-3-239 KO🇲🇽P4P #33

Win probability

Mbilli 34%66% Alvarez

Predicted: Alvarez by decision · 45% inside the distance

BOXINGRANK’s Glicko-2 model — a win probability, not bookmaker odds.

Preview

Christian Mbilli (29-0-1) takes on Canelo Alvarez (63-3-2) at super middleweight on Sat, 31 Oct 2026 with the WBC title on the line. The model rates Alvarez a 66% chance to win against Mbilli's 34%. Mbilli has stopped 83% of the opponents beaten, and the model puts the chance of a finish inside the distance at 45%. Both are in our pound-for-pound list: Mbilli at #60, Alvarez at #33. Mbilli is 5 years younger than Alvarez.

Recent form · last 5

Mbilli

Alvarez

Simulate the fight

Press Run a sim to play one outcome round-by-round, with a live scorecard. Each run is different.

One random run with a live scorecard — for fun. The stable prediction is the panel above.

How it ends · 10,000 sims

inside the distance 45%
KO/TKO 45%Decision 55%

If it ends early — most likely round

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Of finishes, ~35% go to Mbilli. Win probability is shown above. For analysis, not betting.

Tale of the tape

edges 8 — 5
94.2BOXINGRANK rating▸ 96.3
#60P4P rank▸ #33
29-0-1 ◂Record63-3-2
#8Division rank▸ #3
24KO wins▸ 39
83% ◂KO %62%
72" ◂Reach70"
5'9"Height▸ 5'9"
31 ◂Age36
orthodoxStanceorthodox

Punch stats

34%Accuracy25%
13.1Landed / round7.1
38.1Thrown / round28.6
93%Power share69%

Common opponents · 0

No shared opponents in the data.

FAQ

Who is the favourite in Christian Mbilli vs Canelo Alvarez?

BOXINGRANK's model makes Canelo Alvarez the favourite with a 66% win probability (Christian Mbilli 34%). This is our rating model's estimate, not bookmaker odds.

What are Christian Mbilli and Canelo Alvarez's records?

Christian Mbilli is 29-0-1 (wins-losses-draws) with 24 wins by knockout; Canelo Alvarez is 63-3-2 with 39 knockout wins.

When is Christian Mbilli vs Canelo Alvarez?

Sat, 31 Oct 2026 at undefined, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.