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Prediction · Head to head

Fury vs Joshua prediction

Fury vs Joshua · Fri, 11 Dec 2026 · Principality Stadium, Cardiff, Wales

Tyson FuryTyson Fury36-2-125 KO🇬🇧P4P #9VSAnthony JoshuaAnthony Joshua30-4-027 KO🇬🇧P4P #11

Win probability

Fury 55%45% Joshua

Predicted: Fury by decision · 45% inside the distance

BOXINGRANK’s Glicko-2 model — a win probability, not bookmaker odds.

Preview

It's Tyson Fury (36-2-1) against Anthony Joshua (30-4-0) at heavyweight on Fri, 11 Dec 2026. The model rates Fury a 55% chance to win against Joshua's 45%. Joshua has stopped 90% of the opponents beaten, and the model puts the chance of a finish inside the distance at 45%. Fury has lost 2 of the last 5. They share 6 common opponents — results below.

Recent form · last 5

Fury

Joshua

Simulate the fight

Press Run a sim to play one outcome round-by-round, with a live scorecard. Each run is different.

One random run with a live scorecard — for fun. The stable prediction is the panel above.

How it ends · 10,000 sims

inside the distance 44%
KO/TKO 44%Decision 56%

If it ends early — most likely round

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Of finishes, ~55% go to Fury. Win probability is shown above. For analysis, not betting.

Tale of the tape

edges 9 — 3
98.1BOXINGRANK rating98.1
#9 ◂P4P rank#11
36-2-1 ◂Record30-4-0
#2 ◂Division rank#3
25KO wins▸ 27
69%KO %▸ 90%
85" ◂Reach82"
6'9" ◂Height6'6"
38Age▸ 37
orthodoxStanceorthodox

Punch stats

36%Accuracy27%
14.3Landed / round1.7
39.3Thrown / round6.2
68%Power share65%

Common opponents · 7

W SDFrancis NGannouW KO
W UDOtto WallinW TKO
L SDOleksandr UsykL SD
L SDOleksandr UsykL UD
W UDWladimir KlitschkoW TKO
W TKODillian WhyteW TKO
W UDKevin JohnsonW TKO

FAQ

Who is the favourite in Tyson Fury vs Anthony Joshua?

BOXINGRANK's model makes Tyson Fury the favourite with a 55% win probability (Anthony Joshua 45%). This is our rating model's estimate, not bookmaker odds.

What are Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua's records?

Tyson Fury is 36-2-1 (wins-losses-draws) with 25 wins by knockout; Anthony Joshua is 30-4-0 with 27 knockout wins.

When is Tyson Fury vs Anthony Joshua?

Fri, 11 Dec 2026 at Principality Stadium, Cardiff, Wales.