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Result · Head to head

Mendoza vs Sandoval result

Sat, 10 Oct 2026, Wintrust Arena, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.

12 roundsFlyweight
SM
Sergio Mendoza28-1-024 KOP4P #391VS
RS
Ricardo Sandoval27-3-018 KO🇺🇸P4P #583

Result

Sergio Mendoza beat Ricardo Sandoval by TKO in round 5.

The model had Ricardo Sandoval at 67% before the fight — an upset by the model’s numbers ✗

Ranking impact

Mendoza unrated → 78.8 (P4P #391)

Sandoval 86.5 (P4P #206) → 74.2 (P4P #583) -12.3

What the model predicted

Mendoza 33%67% Sandoval

Predicted: Sandoval by decision · 49% inside the distance · one side unrated (default rating)

BOXINGRANK’s Glicko-2 model, from the last ratings published before fight day — a win probability, not bookmaker odds.

The pre-fight picture

Sergio Mendoza and Ricardo Sandoval met at flyweight on Sat, 10 Oct 2026. Going in, the model rated Sandoval a 67% chance to win against Mendoza's 33%. Mendoza has stopped 86% of the opponents beaten, and the model put the chance of a finish inside the distance at 49%. Sandoval is ranked #206 pound-for-pound by our model.

Recent form · going into the fight

Mendoza

Sandoval

Simulate the fight

Press Run a sim to play one outcome round-by-round, with a live scorecard. Each run is different.

One random run with a live scorecard — for fun. The stable prediction is the panel above.

How it ends · 10,000 sims

inside the distance 49%
KO/TKO 49%Decision 51%

If it ends early — most likely round

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Of finishes, ~32% go to Mendoza. Win probability is shown above. For analysis, not betting.

Tale of the tape

edges 7 — 2
78.8 ◂BOXINGRANK rating74.2
#391 ◂P4P rank#583
28-1-0 ◂Record27-3-0
#8 ◂Division rank#10
24 ◂KO wins18
86% ◂KO %67%
66"Reach▸ 67"
5'4"Height▸ 5'6"
26 ◂Age27
—Stanceorthodox

Common opponents · 0

No shared opponents in the data.

FAQ

Who won Sergio Mendoza vs Ricardo Sandoval?

Sergio Mendoza beat Ricardo Sandoval by TKO in round 5 on Sat, 10 Oct 2026. Before the fight, BOXINGRANK's model had Ricardo Sandoval as the favourite at 67%.

Who is the favourite in Sergio Mendoza vs Ricardo Sandoval?

BOXINGRANK's model made Ricardo Sandoval the favourite with a 67% win probability (Sergio Mendoza 33%). This is our rating model's estimate, not bookmaker odds.

What are Sergio Mendoza and Ricardo Sandoval's records?

Sergio Mendoza is 28-1-0 (wins-losses-draws) with 24 wins by knockout; Ricardo Sandoval is 27-3-0 with 18 knockout wins.