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Result · Head to head

Lara vs Ornelas result

Sat, 29 Aug 2026, Complejo Deportivo de Artes Marciales, Guadalajara, Mexico

10 roundsSuper Featherweight
ML
Mauricio Lara31-3-224 KO🇲🇽P4P #84VS
CO
Carlos Ornelas29-6-02 KOUnranked

Result

Mauricio Lara beat Carlos Ornelas by TKO in round 2.

The model had Mauricio Lara at 69% before the fight — it called it ✓

Ranking impact

Lara 89.1 (P4P #163) → 92.7 (P4P #84) +3.6

What the model predicted

Lara 69%31% Ornelas

Predicted: Lara by KO/TKO · 58% inside the distance · one side unrated (default rating)

BOXINGRANK’s Glicko-2 model, from the last ratings published before fight day — a win probability, not bookmaker odds.

The pre-fight picture

Mauricio Lara and Carlos Ornelas met at super featherweight on Sat, 29 Aug 2026. Going in, the model rated Lara a 69% chance to win against Ornelas's 31%. With 24 knockout wins (77%) for Lara, the model gave this a 58% chance of ending early. Lara is ranked #163 pound-for-pound by our model.

Recent form · going into the fight

Lara

Ornelas

Simulate the fight

Press Run a sim to play one outcome round-by-round, with a live scorecard. Each run is different.

One random run with a live scorecard — for fun. The stable prediction is the panel above.

How it ends · 10,000 sims

inside the distance 59%
KO/TKO 59%Decision 41%

If it ends early — most likely round

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Of finishes, ~69% go to Lara. Win probability is shown above. For analysis, not betting.

Tale of the tape

edges 3 — 0
92.7BOXINGRANK rating—
#84P4P rank—
31-3-2 ◂Record29-6-0
#6Division rank—
24 ◂KO wins2
77% ◂KO %7%
67"Reach—
5'7"Height5'7"
28Age—
orthodoxStance—

Common opponents · 0

No shared opponents in the data.

FAQ

Who won Mauricio Lara vs Carlos Ornelas?

Mauricio Lara beat Carlos Ornelas by TKO in round 2 on Sat, 29 Aug 2026. Before the fight, BOXINGRANK's model had Mauricio Lara as the favourite at 69%.

Who is the favourite in Mauricio Lara vs Carlos Ornelas?

BOXINGRANK's model made Mauricio Lara the favourite with a 69% win probability (Carlos Ornelas 31%). This is our rating model's estimate, not bookmaker odds.

What are Mauricio Lara and Carlos Ornelas's records?

Mauricio Lara is 31-3-2 (wins-losses-draws) with 24 wins by knockout; Carlos Ornelas is 29-6-0 with 2 knockout wins.