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Prediction · Head to head

Smith vs Puello prediction

Smith vs. Puello · Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · Sheffield Arena, Sheffield, Yorkshire, England

WBC title12 roundsSuper Lightweight
DS
Dalton Smith19-0-014 KO🇬🇧P4P #139VS
AP
Alberto Puello25-1-011 KO🇩🇴P4P #51

Win probability

Smith 55%45% Puello

Predicted: Smith by decision · 47% inside the distance

BOXINGRANK’s Glicko-2 model — a win probability, not bookmaker odds.

Preview

Dalton Smith (19-0-0) takes on Alberto Puello (25-1-0) at super lightweight on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 with the WBC title on the line. BOXINGRANK's model makes Smith the favourite with a 55% win probability, leaving Puello at 45%. Smith has stopped 74% of the opponents beaten, and the model puts the chance of a finish inside the distance at 47%. Smith has won 4 straight. They share 1 common opponent — results below.

Recent form · last 5

Smith

Puello

Simulate the fight

Press Run a sim to play one outcome round-by-round, with a live scorecard. Each run is different.

One random run with a live scorecard — for fun. The stable prediction is the panel above.

How it ends · 10,000 sims

inside the distance 47%
KO/TKO 47%Decision 53%

If it ends early — most likely round

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Of finishes, ~55% go to Smith. Win probability is shown above. For analysis, not betting.

Tale of the tape

edges 6 — 7
89.8BOXINGRANK rating▸ 95.0
#139P4P rank▸ #51
19-0-0 ◂Record25-1-0
#13Division rank▸ #6
14 ◂KO wins11
74% ◂KO %44%
69"Reach▸ 71"
5'9" ◂Height5'9"
29 ◂Age32
orthodoxStancesouthpaw

Punch stats

29%Accuracy31%
10.9Landed / round16.9
37.5Thrown / round53.8
79%Power share72%

Common opponents · 1

W TKOSubriel MatiasL MD

FAQ

Who is the favourite in Dalton Smith vs Alberto Puello?

BOXINGRANK's model makes Dalton Smith the favourite with a 55% win probability (Alberto Puello 45%). This is our rating model's estimate, not bookmaker odds.

What are Dalton Smith and Alberto Puello's records?

Dalton Smith is 19-0-0 (wins-losses-draws) with 14 wins by knockout; Alberto Puello is 25-1-0 with 11 knockout wins.

When is Dalton Smith vs Alberto Puello?

Sat, 24 Oct 2026 at Sheffield Arena, Sheffield, Yorkshire, England.